Distributional Impacts of Inflation Accounting for Behavioral Effects and Real Assets

Kardelen Cicek, Julieth Pico-Mejia, Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro and Alberto Tumino
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro

No 2026/022, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper analyzes the redistributive effects of inflation across 18 European economies from 2021:Q3 to 2022:Q2, using unique micro-datasets for this country sample. We estimate inflation’s impact on household welfare through the consumption basket, income, and wealth channels. Our main contribution is incorporating real assets into the wealth channel and accounting for behavioral responses to inflation in both the income and wealth channels. These factors significantly alter inflation’s distributional effects compared to previous literature. The inflation shock is estimated to have caused an average welfare loss equivalent to 18.5 percent of annual household income across our sample, with households in the poorest income quintiles suffering the largest losses. Cross-country differences also widen when real assets are incorporated, with a few economies even showing welfare gains for some or all quintiles because house prices rose faster than inflation.

Keywords: Distribution; Inflation; Wealth Effects; Real Assets; Behavioral Effects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 53
Date: 2026-02-06
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