From Ports to Prices: The Inflationary Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions

Yang Jiao, Ting Lan, Yang Liu and Xinrui Zhao

No 2026/026, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper examines the inflationary effects of shipping delays. We construct a novel measure of port-to-port shipping time using real-time AIS maritime data and link it with granular port-level trade and item-level price data. We document substantial heterogeneity in goods imports across ports and regions, variation in exposure to delays, and aggregate price responses to congestion shocks. Exploiting cross-product variations in exposure, we estimate both the average and dynamic effects of shipping delays on consumer prices, finding that a 100-hour delay raises inflation by roughly 0.5 percentage points at its five-month peak.

Keywords: Supply Chain Disruption; Port Congestion; Inflation; Price Dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 11
Date: 2026-02-13
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