Pricing Reform Progress: Evidence from Sovereign Spreads and Consensus Forecasts

Ken Miyajima

No 2026/141, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: Investors reward reform progress. Econometric results suggest that holistic reforms, fiscal spending discipline, and monetary policy credibility are associated with a tightening of Qatar’s external sovereign credit spreads. In particular, investors may view fiscal spending discipline as an integral part of Qatar’s holistic reform and economic diversification. Greater broad-based reform progress also boosts the resilience of sovereign credit spreads to external shocks. The findings support fiscal and monetary policy reforms as part of the broader reform agenda in a holistic manner, as planned under the Third National Development Strategy.

Keywords: Consensus Forecasts; Economic Diversification; Fiscal Discipline; Monetary Policy Credibility; Qatar National Development Strategy; Reform Progress; Sovereign Credit Quality; MENA Region (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 23
Date: 2026-07-03
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