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Zögerliche Konjunkturbelebung - Deutsche Konjunktur zur Jahreswende 2013/2014

Gustav Horn, Alexander Herzog-Stein (), Ansgar Rannenberg (), Katja Rietzler (), Silke Tober, Peter Hohlfeld and Fabian Lindner

No 89-2013, IMK Report from IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute

Abstract: The global economy will be slightly more dynamic during the forecast period. In particular, the emerging market economies will grow a bit faster as a result of higher export demand. The recovery in the United States will gain in strength, supported above all by private consumption expenditure. In the euro area outside Germany, production will pick up slightly given the decline in fiscal restriction, and GDP will increase by 0.6% in 2014. In the euro area as a whole, GDP growth will average 0.8% in 2014. In Germany, economic growth will continue to be restrained during the forecast period. Domestic demand remains the main driving force, the growth contribution of foreign trade being negative. German GDP will increase by 1.2% in 2014, after 0.4% in 2013. Unemployment will rise slightly to 7.0% in 2014, up from 6.9% in 2013. Consumer price inflation will average 1.5% in both years.

Pages: 11 pages
Date: 2013
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