AI Watch: Revisiting Technology Readiness Levels for relevant Artificial Intelligence technologies

Fernando Martinez Plumed (fernando.martinez-plumed@ec.europa.eu), Fernando Caballero Benítez, David Castellano Falcón, David Fernandez Llorca (david.fernandez-llorca@ec.europa.eu), Emilia Gomez (emilia.gomez-gutierrez@ec.europa.eu), Isabelle Hupont Torres (isabelle.hupont-torres@ec.europa.eu), Luis Merino, Carlos Monserrat and José Hernández Orallo
Additional contact information
Fernando Martinez Plumed: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en
David Fernandez Llorca: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en
Emilia Gomez: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en
Isabelle Hupont Torres: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Fernando Martinez-Plumed (fmartinez@dsic.upv.es)

No JRC129399, JRC Research Reports from Joint Research Centre

Abstract: Artificial intelligence (AI) offers the potential to transform our lives in radical ways. However, we lack the tools to determine which achievements will be attained in the near future. Also, we usually underestimate which various technologies in AI are capable of today. This report constitutes the second edition of a study proposing an example-based methodology to categorise and assess several AI technologies, by mapping them onto Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) (e.g., maturity and availability levels). We first interpret the nine TRLs in the context of AI and identify different categories in AI to which they can be assigned. We then introduce new bidimensional plots, called readiness-vs-generality charts, where we see that higher TRLs are achievable for low-generality technologies focusing on narrow or specific abilities, while high TRLs are still out of reach for more general capabilities. In an incremental way, this edition builds on the first report on the topic by updating the assessment of the original set of AI technologies and complementing it with an analysis of new AI technologies. We include numerous examples of AI technologies in a variety of fields and show their readiness-vs-generality charts, serving as a base for a broader discussion of AI technologies. Finally, we use the dynamics of several AI technologies at different generality levels and moments of time to forecast some short-term and mid-term trends for AI.

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Technology Readiness Level; AI technology; evaluation; machine learning; recommender systems; expert systems; apprentice by demonstration; audio-visual content generation; machine translation; speech recognition; massive multi-modal models; facial recognition; text recognition; transport scheduling systems; self-driving cars; home cleaning robots; logistic robots; negotiation agents; virtual assistants; risks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-big, nep-cmp and nep-tid
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc129399

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