Regional economic climate risks in Europe

Ignazio Mongelli (), Antonio Avila Uribe (), Joachim Maes, Jorge Duran Laguna, Luc Feyen () and Juan Carlos Ciscar Martinez ()
Additional contact information
Ignazio Mongelli: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en
Antonio Avila Uribe: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en
Luc Feyen: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en
Juan Carlos Ciscar Martinez: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en

No JRC143093, JRC Research Reports from Joint Research Centre

Abstract: This report examines the magnitude and geography of the economic consequences of climate risks in European NUTS3 regions using a new regional economic growth model that accounts for spatial spillover effects. The assessment, based on the JRC PESETA V project, focuses on a 2⁰C scenario of global warming by 2050 and considers seven climate impact categories: labor productivity, droughts, coastal flooding, river flooding, storms, wildfires and transport infrastructure. By 2050, the 2°C global warming scenario could result in an average 0.7% EU GDP loss (0.8% EU consumption loss), accumulating to an undiscounted €2.5 trillion in GDP losses, highlighting a significant economic burden. The results also indicate that there is a large spatial asymmetry in climate risks, affecting more regions in Southern and Eastern European countries (Greece, Cyprus, Croatia, Portugal, Spain and Italy). Northern European regions are more vulnerable to river and coastal flooding, while Southern and Eastern European regions are disproportionately affected by productivity losses, droughts and coastal flooding. The current allocation of European cohesion funds partially mitigates this asymmetric pattern of climate risks.

Date: 2025-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-env, nep-eur and nep-tra
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