Operational framework for stress testing EU food security

Piotr Magnuszewski, Chris Hegadorn, Katarzyna Szewczyk, Daniele Bertolozzi Caredio () and Pavel Ciaian ()
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Daniele Bertolozzi Caredio: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en
Pavel Ciaian: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en

No JRC145765, JRC Research Reports from Joint Research Centre

Abstract: This report presents a comprehensive operational framework for stress-testing the European Union's food systems to identify vulnerabilities and enhance crisis preparedness. While the EU has historically maintained a stable food supply, the convergence of climate change, geopolitical instability, and economic volatility has created systemic risks that require a forward-looking assessment. The proposed methodology adopts a multidimensional view of food security, incorporating availability, physical and economic access, nutritional utilization, stability, sustainability, and human agency. By utilizing systems thinking and scenario-based foresight, the framework provides a structured process for mapping complex supply chains, designing plausible disruption scenarios, and evaluating cascading impacts. Central to this approach is the iterative collaboration between experts, who provide analytical rigor, and stakeholders, who offer practical sectoral insights. This methodology aims to empower policymakers and industry operators to transition from reactive crisis management to proactive resilience building, ensuring that the EU food system can withstand and adapt to the unpredictable shocks of the 21st century.

Date: 2026-04
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