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The Common Agricultural Policy SIMulation (CAPSIM) Model: Dairy Reform and Western Balkan Countries Accession Scenarios

Heinz Peter Witzke, Andrea Zintl and Axel Tonini

No JRC50411, JRC Working Papers from Joint Research Centre (Seville site)

Abstract: The aim of this study is to provide and describe a multicommodity analysis able to focus and investigate two EU relevant agricultural policy aspects: the dairy reform and the enlargement to Western Balkan countries. The analysis is carried out using the Common Agricultural Policy SIMulation (CAPSIM) model developed in the early 1980s by EuroCARE and the University of Bonn on behalf of DG ESTAT. The model is further upgraded for this study in order to analyse the effects of the Health Check decisions on the EU dairy market as well as the impact of the EU enlargement towards Western Balkans countries. Key results of the main quota expiry scenario for 2020 are that milk production would increase by 3.1% in the EU-27 whereas milk prices would drop by 7.3%. Accession effects in the Western Balkan countries would originate in some convergence to EU prices, in technology transfer which would increase yields, and in CAP components introduced on the Western Balkan like milk quotas or decoupled payments.

Keywords: Agriculture; dairy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009-09
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