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CAPRI long-term climate change scenario analysis: The AgMIP approach

Heinz-Peter Witzke (), Pavel Ciaian and Jacques Delince ()
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Heinz-Peter Witzke: Bonn University
Jacques Delince: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en

No JRC85872, JRC Research Reports from Joint Research Centre

Abstract: The current paper investigates the long-term global effects of crops productivity changes under different climate scenarios and the impact of biofuels expansion using the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact (CAPRI) model. These analyses are conducted in the framework of the AgMIP project (Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project). The results indicate that globally there will be both winners and losers, with some regions benefitting from agricultural production adjustment as a result of climate change whilst most regions suffering losses in production and consumption. Biofuel expansion leads to land relocation away from crop agricultural commodity production to new energy crops which is reflected in lower production levels of agricultural commodities and higher agricultural prices.

Keywords: Climate Change; Lung-run modelling; Agriculture; Productivity; Biofuels (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q02 Q11 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 53 pages
Date: 2014-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-eff, nep-ene and nep-env
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc85872

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