Documentation of the European Comission’s EU module of the Aglink-Cosimo modelling system
Sergio René Araujo Enciso (),
Ignacio Perez Dominguez (),
Fabien Santini and
Sophie Helaine ()
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Sophie Helaine: European Commission – DG Agri
No JRC92618, JRC Working Papers from Joint Research Centre (Seville site)
This report documents the EU module of Aglink-Cosimo model. Aglink-Cosimo is a recursive-dynamic, partial equilibrium, supply demand model of world agriculture developed by the OECD and FAO Secretariats. The model is used to simulate development of annual supply, demand and prices for the main agricultural commodities produced, consumed and traded worldwide. Aglink-Cosimo covers 44 individual countries and 12 regions, and 40 commodities clearing markets at the world level. At the EU level, the Aglink-Cosimo model is used to produce the "Prospects for Agricultural Markets and Income in the EU". This is a yearly exercise that provides a detailed overview of EU agricultural markets with a 10 year time horizon. It incorporates information from policy makers and market experts in the European Commission, stakeholders, researchers and modellers. The EU Outlook intends to provide a broad consensus about the evolution of European Agriculture in the medium-term. It serves as reference timeline for counterfactual policy analysis and market analysis done in numerous research sites in Europe. The report includes a detailed presentation and discussion of the structure and specific features of the model, along with the theoretical underpinnings. It also documents the process of calibration such as to obtain a medium-term baseline and different efforts towards the validation of results. Nonetheless, different applications in the area of uncertainty analysis and the use of partial stochastics are also included.
Keywords: Partial equilibrium model; recursive dynamic; trade; multi-commodity markets; agriculture; global model; baseline; medium-term outlook (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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