Dynamic Estimation of Health Expenditure: A new approach for simulating individual expenditure
Valerie Albouy (),
Laurent Davezies and
Additional contact information
Valerie Albouy: INSEE Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques
No DT20, Working Papers from IRDES institut for research and information in health economics
This study compares estimates of outpatient expenditure computed with different models. Our aim is to predict annual health expenditures. We use a French panel dataset over a six year period (2000-2006) for 7112 individuals. Our article is based on the estimations of five different models. The first model is a simple two part model estimated in cross section. The other models (models 2 to 5) are estimated with selection models (or generalized tobit models). Model 2 is a basic sample selection model in cross section. Model 3 is similar to model 2, but takes into account the panel dimension. It includes constant unobserved heterogeneity to deal with state dependency. Model 4 is a dynamic sample selection model (with lagged adjustement), while in model 5, we take into account the possible heteroskedasticity of residuals in the dynamic model. We find that all the models have the same properties in the cross section dimension (distribution, probability of health care use by gender and age, health expenditure by gender and age) but model 5 gives better results reflecting the temporal correlation with health expenditure. Indeed, the retransformation of predicted log transformed expenditures in homoscedastic models (models 1 to 4) generates very poor temporal correlation for " heavy consumers ", although the data show the contrary. Incorporation of heteroskedasticity gives better results in terms of temporal correlation.
Keywords: Health econometrics; expenditures; panel data; selection models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I0 C1 C5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea and nep-lab
Date: 2009-01, Revised 2009-01
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
http://www.irdes.fr/EspaceAnglais/Publications/Wor ... ealthExpenditure.pdf First version, 2009 (application/pdf)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:irh:wpaper:dt20
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Working Papers from IRDES institut for research and information in health economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Jacques Harrouin ().