A daily fever curve for the Swiss economy

Marc Burri and Daniel Kaufmann

No 20-05, IRENE Working Papers from IRENE Institute of Economic Research

Abstract: Because macroeconomic data is published with a substantial delay, assessing the health of the economy during the rapidly evolving Covid-19 crisis is challenging. We develop a fever curve for the Swiss economy using publicly available daily financial market and news data. The indicator can be computed with a delay of one day. Moreover, it is highly correlated with macroeconomic data and survey indicators of Swiss economic activity. Therefore, it provides timely and reliable warning signals if the health of the economy takes a turn for the worse.

Keywords: Covid-19; Leading indicator; Financial market data; News sentiment; Forecasting; Switzerland (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26 pages.
Date: 2020-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-big and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

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Journal Article: A daily fever curve for the Swiss economy (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:irn:wpaper:20-05

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