Do Financial Markets Reward Government Spending Efficiency?

Antonio Afonso, Joao Jalles and Ana Venâncio ()

No 2021/0166, Working Papers REM from ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa

Abstract: We link governments’ spending efficiency scores, to sovereign debt assessments made by financial markets´, more specifically by three rating agencies (Standard & Poors, Moody´s and Fitch). Public efficiency scores are computed via data envelopment analysis. Then, we rely notably on ordered response models to estimate the response of sovereign ratings to changes in efficiency scores. Covering 34 OECD countries over the period 2007-2018, we find that increased public spending efficiency is rewarded by financial markets via higher sovereign debt ratings. In addition, higher inflation and government indebtedness lead to sovereign rating downgrades, while higher foreign reserves contribute to rating upgrades.

Keywords: government spending efficiency, DEA, panel analysis, ordered probit (logit); sovereign ratings, rating agencies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 C23 E44 G15 H11 H50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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https://rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/wps/pdf/REM_WP_0166_2021.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Do financial markets reward government spending efficiency? (2022)
Working Paper: Do Financial Markets Reward Government Spending Efficiency? (2021)
Working Paper: Do Financial Markets Reward Government Spending Efficiency? (2021)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ise:remwps:wp01662021

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