Capturing Experts' Uncertainty in Welfare Analysis: An Application to Organophosphate Use Regulation in U.S. Apple Production

Jutta Roosen and David Hennessy

Staff General Research Papers Archive from Iowa State University, Department of Economics

Abstract: The use of organophosphate insecticides in apple production has become of regulatory concern since the Food Quality Protection Act passed into law in 1996. Through an expert opinion survey, we assess the economic impact of possible regulatory scenarios on the apple industry. Because experts are unsure of the impacts, we ask them for distributions of impacts to explicitly capture the uncertainty they face. We apply Bayesian methods to aggregate these distributions. Welfare impact distributions for different policy scenarios are estimated and ordered using a nonparametric test for stochastic ordering of probability distributions to facilitate policy decision making.

Date: 2001-02-01
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Published in American Journal of Agricultural Economics, February 2001, vol. 83, pp. 166-184

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Journal Article: Capturing Experts' Uncertainty in Welfare Analysis: An Application to Organophosphate use Regulation in U.S. Apple Production (2001)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:isu:genres:5028

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