Trajectories of Neighborhood Change: Spatial Patterns of Increasing Ethnic Diversity

Merle Zwiers (), Maarten van Ham and David Manley ()
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Merle Zwiers: Delft University of Technology
David Manley: University of Bristol

No 10216, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: Western cities are increasingly ethnically diverse and in most cities the share of ethnic minorities is growing. Studies analyzing changing ethnic geographies often limit their analysis to changes in ethnic concentrations in neighborhoods between two points in time. Such a static approach limits our understanding of pathways of ethnic neighborhood change, and of the underlying factors contributing to change. This paper analyzes full trajectories of neighborhood change in the four largest cities in the Netherlands between 1999 and 2013. Our modelling strategy categorizes neighborhoods based on their unique growth trajectories of the ethnic population composition, providing a longitudinal view of ethnic segregation. Our results show that the ethnic composition in neighborhoods remains relatively stable over time. We find evidence for a slow trend towards deconcentration of ethnic minorities and increased (spatial) population mixing in most neighborhoods. We show how residential mobility decreases segregation, while natural population growth tends to reinforce segregation. While the ethnic minority presence in cities grows, there is a substantial share of neighborhoods which can be identified as white citadels; characterized by a stable large native population, with high incomes and high house values. These neighborhoods seem to be inaccessible to ethnic minorities, which illustrates the spatial manifestation of exclusionary elitism in increasingly ethnically diverse cities.

Keywords: latent class growth modelling; population dynamics; neighborhood trajectories; ethnic segregation; longitudinal study (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J15 O18 R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26 pages
Date: 2016-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem, nep-mig, nep-sog and nep-ure
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Published - published in: Population, Space and Place, 2018, 24 (2), e2094

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