The Effect of Risk Assessment Scores on Judicial Behavior and Defendant Outcomes

CarlyWill Sloan, George Naufal and Heather Caspers ()
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Heather Caspers: Texas A&M University

No 11948, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: The use of risk assessment scores as a means of decreasing pretrial detention for low-risk, primarily poor defendants is increasing rapidly across the United States. Despite this, there is little evidence on how risk assessment scores alter criminal outcomes. Using administrative data from a large county in Texas, we estimate the effect of a risk assessment score policy on judge bond decisions, defendant pretrial detention, and pretrial recidivism. We identify effects by exploiting a large, sudden policy change using a regression discontinuity design. This approach effectively compares defendants booked just before and after the policy change. Results show that adopting a risk assessment score leads to increased release on non-financial bond and decreased pretrial detention. These results appear to be driven by poor defendants. We also find risk assessment scores did not increase violent pretrial recidivism, however there is some suggestive evidence of small increases in non-violent pretrial recidivism.

Keywords: recidivism; risk assessment; bail; pretrial detention; regression; discontinuity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D81 K14 K42 L88 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 54 pages
Date: 2018-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-law
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Published - published online in: Journal of Human Resources , 08 May 2023

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