Should Contact Bans Be Lifted in Germany? A Quantitative Prediction of Its Effects

Jean Roch Donsimoni (), René Glawion (), Bodo Plachter (), Constantin Weiser and Klaus Wälde
Additional contact information
Jean Roch Donsimoni: University of Mainz
René Glawion: University of Hamburg
Bodo Plachter: University of Mainz

No 13151, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: Many countries consider the lifting of restrictions of social contacts (RSC). We quantify the effects of RSC for Germany. We initially employ a purely statistical approach to predicting prevalence of COVID19 if RSC were upheld after April 20. We employ these findings and feed them into our theoretical model. We find that the peak of the number of sick individuals would be reached already in April. The number of sick individuals would fall below 1,000 at the beginning of July. When restrictions are lifted completely on April 20, the number of sick should rise quickly again from around April 27. A balance between economic and individual costs of RSC and public health objectives consists in lifting RSC for activities that have high economic benefits but low health costs. In the absence of large-scale representative testing of CoV-2 infections, these activities can most easily be identified if federal states of Germany adopted exit strategies that differ across states.

Keywords: pandemic; epidemic; forecast Germany; SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C63 E17 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 15 pages
Date: 2020-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-gen, nep-mac and nep-ore
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Published - published in: CESifo Economic Studies, 2020, 66 (2), 115–133

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Working Paper: Should Contact Bans Be Lifted in Germany? A Quantitative Prediction of Its Effects (2020)
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