Expecting Better? How Young People Form Their Earnings Expectations

Marta Favara, Paul Glewwe, Catherine Porter and Alan Sanchez

No 14289, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: Education choices are made based on the expected returns to schooling. If individuals are badly informed, they may make inefficient choices. We directly elicit young people's subjective expectations at the age of 14-15 about earnings under different educational scenarios and find these predict university enrolment by the age of 18-19. Females expect lower earnings than males, likely anticipating the reality of the labour market. Living in a poorer household, weaker numeric skills and lower self-efficacy are also associated with lower expected returns to education. Comparing expectations with the actual earnings from a nationally representative sample of individuals matched by sex, region and place of residence, we find that expectations for earnings upon completing secondary education closely match observed earnings, while there is a tendency to overestimate the returns to completing a university degree. These results hold for both males and females although with considerable variation across regions and population subgroups.

Keywords: subjective expectations; earning realizations; Young Lives; Peru (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I2 J22 J24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 78 pages
Date: 2021-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cwa, nep-eur, nep-lma and nep-ltv
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://docs.iza.org/dp14289.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14289

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
IZA, Margard Ody, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) IZA, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Holger Hinte ().