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On the Estimation and Forecasting of International Migration: How Relevant Is Heterogeneity Across Countries?

Herbert Brücker () and Boriss Siliverstovs

No 1710, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: This paper performs a comparative analysis of estimation as well as of out-of-sample forecasting results of more than 20 estimators common in the panel data literature using the data on migration to Germany from 18 source countries in the period 1967-2001. Our results suggest that the choice of an estimation procedure has a substantial impact on the parameter estimates of the migration function. Out-of-sample forecasting results indicate the following: (i) the standard fixed effects estimators clearly outperforms the pooled OLS estimator, (ii) both the fixed effects estimators and the hierarchical Bayes estimator exhibit the superior forecast performance, (iii) the fixed effects estimators outperform GMM and other instrumental variables estimators, (iv) forecasting performance of heterogenous estimators is mediocre in our data set.

Keywords: panel data; international migration; forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 C53 F22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec and nep-for
Date: 2005-08
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Published in: Empirical Economics, 2006, 31(3), 735-754

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Journal Article: On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries? (2006) Downloads
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