Heated Debates on Heating: Investigating the Electoral Impact of Climate Policy

Dorothea Kistinger, Noah Kögel, Nicolas Koch () and Matthias Kalkuhl
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Dorothea Kistinger: Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC)
Noah Kögel: Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC)
Nicolas Koch: Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC)
Matthias Kalkuhl: Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC)

No 17596, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: The transition to a renewable heating system poses extraordinary policy challenges to societies in Europe and beyond. Many buildings are heated decentrally, which makes broad public acceptance essential. As governments may be held responsible for perceived policy impacts on individuals, analyzing their effects on electoral support is of high relevance. This study examines the electoral impact of an amendment to the German Buildings Energy Act which proposed a phase-out of fossil-fueled heating systems. We combine municipal election data with granular socioeconomic and building stock data and apply difference-in-differences regressions to identify treatment effects of the policy amendment on electoral support. We find that material costs of the policy, proxied by the characteristics of the local building stock, led to relative gains for the right-wing populist party, further increasing in low-income areas. These findings highlight the importance of holistic climate policy approaches that account for heterogeneous burdens and counteract a political backlash through compensation policies.

Keywords: climate policy; public acceptance; voting; building sector; difference-in-differences (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C21 D72 Q48 Q58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31 pages
Date: 2025-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-ene, nep-env and nep-pol
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