Pro-Trump Vote and US-Mexico Migration

Maria Esther Caballero (), Giuseppe Ippedico () and Giovanni Peri ()
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Maria Esther Caballero: Carnegie Mellon University
Giuseppe Ippedico: University of Nottingham
Giovanni Peri: University of California, Davis

No 17787, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: We study how the US presidential election of 2016 affected the subsequent inflow of Mexican-born immigrants. We use the "Matricula Consular de Alta Seguridad" data to construct proxies for annual inflows and internal movements of Mexican-born individuals, including undocumented immigrants, across US commuting zones. We find that a 10-percentage point increase in the Republican vote share in a commuting zone reduced inflows by 1.8 percent after the 2016 Trump election. The internal relocation of established Mexican immigrants primarily explains this reduction, though inflows of new immigrants decreased as well.

Keywords: political shocks; networks; migration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 F22 J61 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-03
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