Beliefs about Bots: How Employers Plan for AI in White-Collar Work

Eduard Brüll, Samuel Mäurer () and Davud Rostam-Afschar
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Samuel Mäurer: University of Mannheim

No 18225, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: We provide experimental evidence on how employers adjust expectations to automation risk in high-skill, white-collar work. Using a randomized information intervention among tax advisors in Germany, we show that firms systematically underestimate automatability. Information provision raises risk perceptions, especially for routine-intensive roles. Yet, it leaves short-run hiring plans unchanged. Instead, updated beliefs increase productivity and financial expectations with minor wage adjustments, implying within-firm inequality like limited rent-sharing. Employers also anticipate new tasks in legal tech, compliance, and AI interaction, and report higher training and adoption intentions.

Keywords: belief updating; firm expectations; technology adoption; innovation; technological change; automation; artificial intelligence; expertise; labor demand; white collar jobs; training (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C93 D22 D84 J23 J24 O33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ain, nep-bec, nep-eur, nep-exp, nep-hrm, nep-ict, nep-lma and nep-tid
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Related works:
Working Paper: Beliefs about Bots: How Employers Plan for AI in White-Collar Work (2025)
Working Paper: Beliefs about Bots: How Employers Plan for AI in White-Collar Work (2025)
Working Paper: Beliefs about bots: How employers plan for AI in white-collar work (2025)
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