Crime and Prices: Evidence from Thefts of Expensive Precious Metal

Gerald Foong (), Stephen Machin and Matteo Sandi ()
Additional contact information
Gerald Foong: Singapore Management University
Matteo Sandi: London School of Economics

No 18353, IZA Discussion Papers from IZA Network @ LISER

Abstract: We study whether economic incentives matter for crime in a novel way, through study of expensive precious metal thefts by thieves stealing catalytic converters. We combine sharp, plausibly exogenous variation in the prices of precious metals embedded in converters with newly assembled U.S. data and multiple research designs. We show that phenomenally fast increases in precious metal prices generated a sizeable and rapid rise in auto-part thefts, while subsequent price declines and policy responses quickly reversed this pattern. The resulting boom-and-bust dynamics provide clean evidence that both demand- and supply-side economic forces shape property crime and inform targeted deterrence policies.

Keywords: auto-part theft; expensive precious metals; catalytic converters (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: K42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-min
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Related works:
Working Paper: Crime and prices: evidence from thefts of expensive precious metal (2026)
Working Paper: Crime and Prices: Evidence From Thefts of Expensive Precious Metal (2025)
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