Direct Democracy and Candidate Choice: Evidence from Abortion Ballot Measures

Graham Gardner (), Kayleigh McCrary () and Melissa Spencer ()
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Graham Gardner: Texas Christian University
Kayleigh McCrary: University of Richmond
Melissa Spencer: University of Richmond

No 18928, IZA Discussion Papers from IZA Network @ LISER

Abstract: Do ballot measures generate spillover effects on voters’ choice of candidates? We examine this question by studying 16 abortion ballot measures in the 2022 and 2024 US general elections. Nationwide electoral returns show that the 2022 measures aided Democrats, but the 2024 measures aided Republicans. These effects are not explained by turnout. Instead, ballot measures incentivize voters to select candidates along margins other than the ballot measure issue. Survey data from 2024 show that moderate voters who preferred abortion rights and had the chance to vote on abortion ballot measures became more likely to vote Republican.

Keywords: abortion; voting; elections (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 I18 J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-09
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