Forecasting Errors: Yet More Problems for Identification?

Bruno Contini ()

No 4035, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: Forecasting errors pose a serious problem of identification, often neglected in empirical applications. Any attempt of estimating choice models under uncertainty may lead to severely biased results in the presence of forecasting errors even when individual expectations on future events are observed together with the standard outcome variables.

Keywords: identification; forecasting errors; subjective probabilities (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C01 C51 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 13 pages
Date: 2009-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm and nep-for
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Related works:
Journal Article: Forecasting Errors: Yet more Problems for Identification? (2011)
Working Paper: Forecasting errors: yet more problems for identification? (2008)
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