A Gravity Model of Migration between ENC and EU

Raul Ramos and Jordi Suriñach

No 7700, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: Due to ageing population and low birth rates, the European Union (EU) will need to import foreign labour in the next decades. In this context, the EU neighbouring countries (ENC) are the main countries of origin and transit of legal and illegal migration towards Europe. Their economic, cultural and historical links also make them an important potential source of labour force. The objective of this paper is to analyse past and future trends in ENC-EU bilateral migration relationships. With this aim, two different empirical analyses are carried out. First, we specify and estimate a gravity model for nearly 200 countries between 1960 and 2010; and, second, we focus on within EU-27 migration flows before and after the enlargement of the EU. Our results show a clear increase in migratory pressures from ENC to the EU in the near future, but South-South migration will also become more relevant.

Keywords: gravity model; EU neighbouring countries; bilateral migration; push and pull migration factors (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 C53 J11 J15 J61 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 25 pages
Date: 2013-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mig
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Forthcoming - published in: Tijdschrift Voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, 2017, 108 (1), 21-35

Downloads: (external link)
https://docs.iza.org/dp7700.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: A Gravity Model of Migration Between the ENC and the EU (2017)
Working Paper: A gravity model of migration between ENC and EU (2013)
Working Paper: A gravity model of migration between ENC and EU (2013)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7700

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
IZA, Margard Ody, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) IZA, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Holger Hinte ().