Crisis-Specific Gulfization of Stock Markets: Multipolar Shock Sources in GCC Spillovers

Jun Saito

No 1012, IDE Discussion Papers from Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO)

Abstract: This study examines crisis-period spillovers between GCC stock markets and recipient markets in MENA, Asia, and Africa through the lens of “Gulfization.” Using VARX models and 12-step-ahead FEVD, it compares the Global Financial Crisis, the oil price bust, and the COVID-19 crisis. The results show that GCC-related spillovers are strongest during COVID-19 and weakest during the oil price bust. They also reveal a multipolar structure: Saudi Arabia does not consistently dominate, while Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Oman, and Kuwait emerge as important contributors depending on the crisis and recipient market. These findings suggest that crisis-specific Gulfization is a multipolar financial linkage shaped by crisis type and recipient-market conditions.

Keywords: Gulfization|GCC; stock; markets|financial; spillovers|financial; connectedness|VARX-FEVD|crisis; transmission (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 F36 G01 G15 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-08
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Published in IDE Discussion Paper = IDE Discussion Paper, No.1012. 2026-08

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