Does vaccination mitigate the negative impacts of Coronavirus on trade?

Kazunobu Hayakawa

No 827, IDE Discussion Papers from Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO)

Abstract: This paper examines how vaccinations modify the effect of coronavirus (COVID-19) on trade. We analyzed monthly level trade data from January 2019 to June 2021 that covered the bilateral trade of 31 reporting countries with 220 partner countries. The severity of COVID-19 damages was measured by the number of newly confirmed cases and the death toll. We found that, on average, the increase of confirmed cases and deaths significantly decreased both exports and imports. However, these negative effects were mitigated with the increase in vaccination doses, especially seen in the case of exports. Finally, the lockdown and restrictions severity started to dwindle with the increase in vaccination doses. We analyzed the relationship of vaccination doses on lockdowns and restrictions to gauge the impact of COVID-19 severity on international trade.

Keywords: COVID-19; trade; vaccination; Diseases (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F15 F53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-09
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Published in IDE Discussion Paper = IDE Discussion Paper, No. 827. 2021-09

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