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Simulating the decoupling world under Russia's invasion of Ukraine: an application of IDE-GSM

Satoru Kumagai, Kazunobu Hayakawa, Ikumo Isono, Toshitaka Gokan, Souknilanh Keola, Kenmei Tsubota and Hiroya Kubo

No 874, IDE Discussion Papers from Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO)

Abstract: The world appears to be divided into three blocs: the Chinese–Russian bloc, the Western alliance, and the rest of the world that remains neutral in the conflict between t he former camps. This study estimates the economic impacts of “decoupling” s cenarios on each country and region using a computable general equilibrium (CGE)-t ype simulation model called the geographical simulation model developed by the I nstitute of Developing Economies (IDE-GSM). Simulation results indicate that 1) the decoupling of Russia will not have a significant impact on the global economy, except i n the mining sector, and 2) if China joins the Russian camp, the impact will be s ignificant on the world economy, especially for Asian countries.

Keywords: Decoupling; of; the; world|Simulation; analysis|IDE-GSM (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E27 F17 R12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-01
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Published in IDE Discussion Paper = IDE Discussion Paper, No. 874. 2023-01

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