The Effects of US Additional Tariffs in Trump 2.0 on Production and Trade: Evidence from Thailand

Kazunobu Hayakawa, Souknilanh Keola and Sasatra Sudsawasd

No 978, IDE Discussion Papers from Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO)

Abstract: This study uses three types of data to quantify the impact of Trump 2.0 in Thailand. First, using product-level trade data from January 2023 to July 2025, we show that the additional US tariffs have significantly decreased automobiles and some steel/aluminum product exports to the US. In contrast, exports of auto parts and other items subject to additional tariffs do not change significantly. Second, using industry-level production data from the same period, we show that the additional US tariffs do not significantly change capacity utilization (except in the automotive sector), while firms appear to be gradually reducing their inventory levels. Finally, using firm-level export data for the US market in 2024 and 2025 (from January to July), we find that importers from China or Chinese firms improve their export ranking in the US in 2025. Such firms are also more likely to continue exporting to the US in 2025.

Keywords: United; States|Trump; 2.0|Thailand|Tariffs|Transshipment|China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F15 F53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-09
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Published in IDE Discussion Paper = IDE Discussion Paper, No.978. 2025-09

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