Who Fears Job Losses from U.S. Tariff Hikes? Evidence from Cambodia

Kiyoyasu Tanaka and Yasushi Ueki

No 985, IDE Discussion Papers from Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO)

Abstract: In April 2025, the U.S. introduced sharply higher tariff rates under a new “reciprocal tariff” system, raising serious concerns about potential employment impacts on export-oriented industries in developing countries. This paper examines Cambodian public perceptions of the tariff hikes using a phone-based survey of 600 households conducted between September and October 2025. We find that 58.5% of respondents disagreed that the tariff increases negatively affect their jobs, indicating limited perceived employment risk, while 25.9% expressed agreement. Regression analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity across income groups: low-income respondents employed in export industries are significantly more likely to perceive negative job impacts, whereas middle- and higher-income respondents show no meaningful direct-exposure effects. Indirect exposure reduces perceived risks among higher-income groups, reflecting their greater job stability and financial resilience.

Keywords: Trade; policy|Reciprocaltariffs|Public; opinion|Job; loss|Cambodia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D84 F13 F14 F16 J63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-01
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Published in IDE Discussion Paper = IDE Discussion Paper, No.985. 2026-01

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