The Effect of the US–China Trade War in a Neighboring Least-Developed Country

Kazunobu Hayakawa and Phouphet Kyophilavon

No 986, IDE Discussion Papers from Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO)

Abstract: This study empirically examines the effects of US tariffs against China on exports to the United States from Laos, a least-developed country bordering China. Using monthly firm-level trade data from January 2018 to December 2020, we found that all firms in Laos, except those of US origin, benefit on average from trade diversion in the US market. In particular, rising exports by foreign firms other than US-origin firms are not attributable to the transshipment of Chinese products. For example, China-origin firms that expand exports to the US do not import products from China. However, Lao firms’ exports to the United States appear to increase through the transshipment or minor processing of Chinese goods, although the scale of these exports is negligible. Moreover, Lao exporters increased their exports to the United States without reducing exports to non-US countries.

Keywords: US–China; trade; war|Transshipment|Laos (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F15 F53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-01
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Published in IDE Discussion Paper = IDE Discussion Paper, No.986. 2026-01

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