Volatility, Information and Stock Market Crashes
Nikolaos Antonakakis and
No 2009-18, Economics working papers from Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria
In this paper, we examine the evolution of the S&P500 returns volatility around market crashes using a Markov-Switching model. We find that volatility typically switches into the high volatility state well before a crash and remains in the high state for a considerable period of time after the crash. These results do not support the view that crashes are due to the resolution of uncertainty (e.g. Romer, 1993), but are consistent with the model in Frankel (2008) where the adaptive forecasts of volatility by uniformed traders result in a crash.
Keywords: Stock Market Crash; Volatility; Markov Switching (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 D8 G0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Journal Article: VOLATILITY INFORMATION AND STOCK MARKET CRASHES (2012)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jku:econwp:2009_18
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Economics working papers from Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by René Böheim ().