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Exogenous oil supply shocks in OPEC and non-OPEC countries

Jochen Güntner () and Johannes Henßler

No 2020-02, Economics working papers from Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria

Abstract: This note expands Kilian’s (2008) original time series of exogenous oil supply shocks along two dimensions. First, we extend the sample period and include production shortfalls in OPEC member states during 2004:10–2018:12. Second, we also consider production shortfalls in non-OPEC countries. Our extended series of exogenous oil supply shocks displays statistically significant correlation with alternative estimates of oil supply shocks based on vector-autoregressive models. At the same time, it requires a limited number of assumptions about the counterfactual evolution of production in the countries under consideration rather than the hotly debated identifying restrictions inherent in multivariate structural models.

Keywords: Counterfactual analysis; Crude oil production; Exogenous events; Oil supply shocks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: N50 Q31 Q35 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-ore
Note: English
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