China's Emergence and the Implications of Prospective Free Trade Agreements in East Asia

Hiro Lee, David Roland-Holst and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (vandermd@purdue.edu)

No 156, Discussion Paper Series from Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University

Abstract: China's accelerated global emergence has changed trade patterns in the Asia-Pacific region and exerted important influence on its trilateral relationship with Japan and the United States. In this paper, we evaluate the effects of multilateral and regional trade policy scenarios that are particularly relevant to China, Japan, and the United States using a dynamic global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Our results suggest that the three countries would gain substantially from a trilateral free trade agreement and could realize large fractions of the residual gains from global trade liberalization. We contrast this with prospective free trade agreements (FTAs) in East Asia, and we find that these FTAs largely benefit smaller member economies (e.g., ASEAN countries).

Keywords: FTA; China; East Asia; Trilateralism; CGE model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 F15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 48 pages
Date: 2004-04
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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