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Does International Trade Really Lead to Business Cycle Synchronization?-A panel data approach

Michael Artis and Toshihiro Okubo ()

No DP2011-05, Discussion Paper Series from Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University

Abstract: This paper re-estimates the correlation between trade and business cycle synchronization. Different from other previous studies, we employ long-run GDP and trade data and use the GDP cross-correlation index a la Cerqueira and Martins (2009) rather than over-time cross-correlations. We find a positive impact of trade on business cycle synchronization particularly in the current wave of globalization, although the inter-war period sees negative impacts. The current economic integration and currency unions also positively affect business cycle synchronization.

Keywords: Business cycle synchronization; Trade; Panel approach (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 F15 F43 F55 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec, nep-int, nep-mac and nep-opm
Date: 2011-01
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Journal Article: DOES INTERNATIONAL TRADE REALLY LEAD TO BUSINESS CYCLE SYNCHRONIZATION?—A PANEL DATA APPROACH (2011) Downloads
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