Total Fertility Rates and Urban Agglomeration in Asia

Keisuke Kondo
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Keisuke Kondo: Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry and Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN

No DP2026-14, Discussion Paper Series from Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University

Abstract: This study examines the relationship between total fertility rates and urban agglomeration in Asia through a comparative descriptive analysis of subnational data from Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand. Against the backdrop of a nationwide decline in fertility, the study asks whether low fertility is systematically associated with population density within Asian countries and region, rather than constituting a national-level demographic outcome solely. The empirical analysis is based on explanatory spatial data analysis, combining maps of population density and total fertility rates. The empirical analysis finds that, within each country examined, fertility tends to be lower in denser and more urbanized areas, particularly in major metropolitan areas such as Tokyo, Seoul, Taipei, Ho Chi Minh City, Jakarta, and Bangkok. Although the strength and dispersion of the relationship vary across national contexts, a broadly similar negative density–fertility gradient is observed throughout Asia. These findings suggest that low fertility in Asia should be understood not only as a demographic transition, but also as a spatial phenomenon closely associated with urban concentration.

Keywords: Total fertility rate; Population density; Urban agglomeration; Population decline (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 J13 R12 R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 22 pages
Date: 2026-03
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