Measuring Knightian Uncertainty

David Iselin () and Andreas Dibiasi
Additional contact information
David Iselin: KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, Switzerland

No 19-456, KOF Working papers from KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich

Abstract: Uncertainty shapes the trajectory of business cycles and remains a central research topic in Macroeconomics. When studying the impact of uncertainty on the economy, economists use different uncertainty measures. While all indicators approximate uncertainty along some certain dimension, none of the indicators directly captures Knightian Uncertainty. According to Knight, uncertainty represents a situation in which it is no longer possible to form expectations about the future. In this study, we propose a method to directly measure Knightian Uncertainty. Our approach relies on firm-level data and measures the share of firms that are not able to formalize expectations about their future demand. We construct the Knightian Uncertainty indicator for Switzerland and show that the indicator is able to identify times of high uncertainty and detects uncertainty shocks well. We further evaluate the indicator by comparing it to established uncertainty measures. We find that most other indicators are weakly, but statistically significantly correlated with Knightian Uncertainty.

Keywords: Knight; uncertainty; measurement; business survey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D80 D84 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 43 pages
Date: 2019-05
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000341984 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Measuring Knightian uncertainty (2021)
Working Paper: Measuring Knightian uncertainty (2021)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kof:wpskof:19-456

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in KOF Working papers from KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().