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Estimating a Time-Varying Distribution-Led Regime

Paul Carrillo-Maldonado and Michalis Nikiforos

Economics Working Paper Archive from Levy Economics Institute

Abstract: This paper estimates the distribution-led regime of the US economy for the period 1947-2019. We use a time varying parameter model, which allows for changes in the regime over time. To the best of our knowledge this is the first paper that has attempted to do this. This innovation is important, because there is no reason to expect that the regime of the US economy (or any economy for that matter) remains constant over time. On the contrary, there are significant reasons that point to changes in the regime. We find that the US economy became more profit-led in the first postwar decades until the 1970s and has become less profit-led since; it is slightly wage-led over the last fifteen years.

Keywords: Wage-led; Profit-led; Distribution; Growth; Time-Varying Parameters (VAR) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C3 E11 E12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his, nep-hme, nep-mac and nep-pke
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