Unraveling the Relationship between Presidential Approval and the Economy - A Multi-Dimensional Semi-Parametric Approach

Michael Berlemann (), Soeren Enkelmann () and Torben Kuhlenkasper ()
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Soeren Enkelmann: Department of Economics, Leuphana University Lueneburg, Germany
Torben Kuhlenkasper: Goethe University Frankfurt and HWWI, Germany

No 273, Working Paper Series in Economics from University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics

Abstract: Empirical studies analyzing the determinants of U.S. presidential popularity have delivered quite inconclusive results concerning the role of economic variables by assuming linear relationships. We employ penalized spline smoothing in the context of semi-parametric additive mixed models and allow for flexible functional forms and thus possible non-linear effects for the economic determinants. By controlling for the well-known politically motivated covariables, we find strong evidence for non-linear and negative effects of unemployment, inflation, and government consumption on presidential approval. Additionally, we present new results in favor of non-parametric trivariate interaction effects between the macroeconomic covariables.

Keywords: Presidential Popularity; Macroeconomy; Semi-Parametric Regression; Penalized Splines (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 C22 C54 E02 H11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 44 pages
Date: 2013-05
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Unraveling the Relationship Between Presidential Approval and the Economy: A Multidimensional Semiparametric Approach (2015)
Working Paper: Unraveling the Relationship between Presidential Approval and the Economy - A Multi-Dimensional Semi-Parametric Approach (2013)
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