Unraveling the Relationship between Presidential Approval and the Economy - A Multi-Dimensional Semi-Parametric Approach

Sören Enkelmann, Michael Berlemann () and Torben Kuhlenkasper

VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order from Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association

Abstract: Empirical studies analyzing the determinants of U.S. presidential popularity have delivered quite inconclusive results concerning the role of economic variables by assuming linear relationships. We employ penalized spline smoothing in the context of semi-parametric additive mixed models and allow for flexible functional forms and thus possible non-linear effects for the economic determinants. By controlling for the well-known politically motivated covariables, we find strong evidence for non-linear and negative effects of unemployment, inflation, and government consumption on presidential approval. Additionally, we present new results in favor of non-parametric trivariate interaction effects between the macroeconomic covariables.

JEL-codes: C14 E02 H11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Unraveling the Relationship Between Presidential Approval and the Economy: A Multidimensional Semiparametric Approach (2015)
Working Paper: Unraveling the Relationship between Presidential Approval and the Economy - A Multi-Dimensional Semi-Parametric Approach (2013)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:79836

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