EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Multilateral, Regional, and Bilateral Trade-Policy Options for the United States and Japan

Drusilla Brown (), Alan Deardorff and Robert Stern

No 490, Working Papers from Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan

Abstract: We have used the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to simulate the economic effects on the United States, Japan, and other major trading countries/regions of the Doha Round of WTO multilateral trade negotiations and a variety of regional/bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) involving the United States and Japan. We estimate that an assumed reduction of post-Uruguay Round tariffs and other barriers on agricultural and industrial products and services by 33 percent in the Doha Round would increase world welfare by $686.4 billion, with gains of $164.0 billion for the United States, $132.6 billion for Japan, and significant gains for all other industrialized and developing countries/regions. If there were global free trade with all post-Uruguay Round trade barriers completely removed, world welfare would increase by $2.1 trillion, with gains of $497.0 billion (5.5 percent of GNP) for the United States and $401.9 billion (6.2 percent of GNP) for Japan. Regional agreements such as an APEC FTA, an ASEAN Plus 3 FTA, and a Western Hemisphere FTA would increase global and member country welfare but much less so than the Doha multilateral trade round would. Separate bilateral FTAs involving Japan with Singapore, Mexico, Chile, and Korea and the United States with Chile, Singapore, and Korea would have positive, though generally small, welfare effects on the partner countries, but potentially disruptive sectoral employment shifts in some countries. There would be trade diversion and detrimental welfare effects on some nonmember countries for both the regional and bilateral FTAs analyzed. The welfare gains from multilateral trade liberalization are therefore considerably greater than the gains from preferential trading arrangements and more uniformly positive for all countries.

Keywords: WTO; Trade Liberalization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F10 F13 F15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 33 Pages
Date: 2002
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://fordschool.umich.edu/rsie/workingpapers/Papers476-500/r490.pdf

Related works:
Journal Article: Multilateral, Regional and Bilateral Trade‐Policy Options for the United States and Japan (2003) Downloads
Working Paper: Multilateral, Regional, and Bilateral Trade-Policy Options for the United States and Japan (2001) Downloads
Working Paper: Multilateral, Regional, and Bilateral Trade-Policy Options for the United States and Japan (2001) Downloads
Working Paper: Multilateral, Regional, and Bilateral Trade-Policy Options for the United States and Japan (2001) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mie:wpaper:490

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by FSPP Webmaster ().

 
Page updated 2025-03-30
Handle: RePEc:mie:wpaper:490