Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic

Zsolt Darvas, Andrew Rose and György Szapáry

No 504, Working Papers from Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest

Abstract: Using a panel of 21 OECD countries and 40 years of annual data, we find that countries with similar government budget positions tend to have business cycles that fluctuate more closely. That is, fiscal convergence (in the form of persistently similar ratios of government surplus/deficit to GDP) is systematically associated with more synchronized business cycles. We also find evidence that reduced fiscal deficits increase business cycle synchronization. The Maastricht “convergence criteria,” used to determine eligibility for EMU, encouraged fiscal convergence and deficit reduction. They may thus have indirectly moved Europe closer to an optimum currency area, by reducing countries’ abilities to create idiosyncratic fiscal shocks. Our empirical results are economically and statistically significant, and robust.

Keywords: European; monetary; union; policy; Maastricht; criteria; optimum; Mundell (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 27 pages
Date: 2005-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-pbe
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (110)

Published as an NBER Working Paper No. 11580

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Related works:
Chapter: Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic (2005)
Working Paper: Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic (2005)
Working Paper: Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic (2005)
Working Paper: Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic (2005)
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