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It's the Economy Stupid?

Lisa Cameron () and Mark Crosby ()

No 699, Department of Economics - Working Papers Series from The University of Melbourne

Abstract: In this paper we examine the impact of macroeconomic conditions on federal electoral performance in twentieth century Australia. We find that the electorate penalises a government for high inflation and high unemployment relative to trend. Real GDP growth and real wage growth were not found to have a systematic relationship with incumbent vote share at the federal level. We also examine the voteshare of the federal incumbent in three electorates: the safe Liberal seat of Kooyong, the safe Labor seat of Melbourne Ports, and the swinging seat of Latrobe. We find some evidence that unemployment affects electoral outcomes in the swinging seat, but no macroeconomic variables affect outcomes in the safe seats.

Keywords: ELECTIONS; SOCIAL CHOICE; MACROECONOMICS (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 D78 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1999
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