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Department of Economics - Working Papers Series

From The University of Melbourne
Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne, 4th Floor, FBE Building, Level 4, 111 Barry Street. Victoria, 3010, Australia.
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2043: Creating Confusion "Abstract: We develop a model in which a politician seeks to prevent people from making informed decisions. The politician can manipulate information at a cost, but cannot commit to an information structure. The receivers are rational and internalize the politician's incentives. In the unique equilibrium of the game, the receivers' beliefs are unbiased but endogenously noisy. We use this model to interpret the rise of social media. We argue that social media simultaneously (i) improves the underlying, intrinsic precision of the receivers' information but also (ii) reduces the politician's costs of manipulation. We show that there is a critical threshold such that if the costs of manipulation fall enough, the politician is better off and the receivers are worse off, despite the underlying improvement in their information. But if the costs of manipulation do not fall too much, and if the receivers are also sufficiently well coordinated, the manipulation backfires. In this scenario, the politician would want to invest in commitment devices that prevent them from manipulating information." Downloads
Chris Edmond and Yang K Lu
2042: Inequality and Poverty in Africa: Comparing Panels of Income Distributions from Different Data Sources Downloads
Duangkamon Chotikapanich, William E. Griffiths, Gholamreza Hajargasht, D. S. Prasada Rao and Charley Xia
2041: Grading Journals in Economics: The ABCs of the ABDC Downloads
Joseph Hirschberg and Jeanette Lye
2040: By chance or by choice? Biased attribution of others’ outcomes Downloads
Nisvan Erkal, Lata Gangadharan and Boon Han Koh
2039: Effective Tax Rates on Different Corporate Investments Downloads
John Freebairn
2038: Labor’s Share, the firm’s market power and TFP Downloads
Robert Dixon and Guay Lim
2037: Confidence Intervals for Ratios: Econometric Examples with Stata "Abstract: Ratios of parameter estimates are often used in econometric applications. However, the test of these ratios when estimated can cause difficulties since the ratio of asymptotically normally distributed random variables have a Cauchy distribution for which there are no finite moments. This paper presents a method for the estimation of confidence intervals based on the Fieller approach that has been shown to be preferable to the usual Delta method. Using example applications, we demonstrate that a few extra steps in the examination of the estimate of the ratio may provide a confidence interval with superior coverage." Downloads
Jeanette Lye and Joseph Hirschberg
2036: Using the GB2 Income Distribution: A Review Downloads
Duangkamon Chotikapanich, William Griffiths, Gholamreza Hajargasht, Wasana Karunarathne and D.S. Prasada Rao
2033: Competition in the Manuka Honey Industry in New Zealand Downloads
Peter Lloyd
2032: Telecommunications infrastructure and usage and the FDI–growth nexus: evidence from Asian-21 countries "Abstract: This paper examines causal relationships between telecommunications infrastructure and usage (TEL), foreign direct investment (FDI), and economic growth in the Asian-21 countries for the period 1965–2012. TEL is defined in terms of the prevalence of telephone main lines, mobile phones, internet servers and users, as well as the extent of fixed broadband. These measures are considered both individually and collectively in the form of a composite index of TEL. We report results on long-run relationships between TEL, FDI, and economic growth. We also use a panel vector auto-regression model to reveal the nature of Granger causality among the three variables. Results from these causal relationships provide important policy implications to the Asian-21 countries." Downloads
Mak Arvin, Mahendhiran Nair, Jay Mittal, and Neville R. Norman
2031: Bayesian Inference for Health Inequality and Welfare Using Qualitative Data "Abstract: We show how to use Bayesian inference to compare two ordinal categorical distributions commonly occurring with data on self-reported health status. Procedures for computing probabilities for first and second order stochastic dominance and equality or S-dominance are described, along with methodology for obtaining posterior densities for health inequality indices. The techniques are applied to four years of data on Australian self-reported health status." Downloads
David Gunawan, William Griffths and Duangkamon Chotikapanich
2030: Bayesian Weighted Inference from Surveys "Abstract: Data from large surveys are often supplemented with sampling weights that are designed to reflect unequal probabilities of response and selection inherent in complex survey sampling methods. We propose two methods for Bayesian estimation of parametric models in a setting where the survey data and the weights are available, but where information on how the weights were constructed is unavailable. The first approach is to simply replace the likelihood with the pseudo likelihood in the formulation of Bayes theorem. This is proven to lead to a consistent estimator but also leads to credible intervals that suffer from systematic undercoverage. Our second approach involves using the weights to generate a representative sample which is embedded within a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or other simulation algorithm designed to estimate the parameters of the model. In extensive simulation studies, the latter methodology is shown to achieve performance comparable to the standard frequentist solution of pseudo maximum likelihood, with the added advantage of being applicable to models that require inference via MCMC. The methodology is demonstrated further by fitting a mixture of gamma densities to a sample of Australian household income." Downloads
David Gunawan, William Griffths and Anatasios Panagiotelis and Duangkamon Chotikapanich
2029: Bayesian Assessment of Lorenz and Stochastic Dominance Downloads
David Lander, David Gunawan, William Griffiths and Duangkamon Chotikapanich
2027: Australian Exceptionalism? Inequality and Living Standards 1821-1871 Downloads
Laura Panza and Jeffrey G. Williamson
2026: Alternative Graphical Representations of the Confidence Intervals for the Structural Coefficient from Exactly Identified Two-Stage Least Squares Downloads
Joseph Hirschberg and Jeanette Lye
2025: How Do Exporters Cope With Violence? Evidence from Political Strikes in Bangladesh Downloads
Reshad N. Ahsan and Kazi Iqbal
2024: Estimation and Testing of Stochastic Frontier Models using Variational Bayes Downloads
Gholamreza Hajargasht and William Griffiths
2023: Bayesian Assessment of Lorenz and Stochastic Dominance Using a Mixture of Gamma Densities Downloads
David Lander, David Gunawan, William Griffiths and Duangkamon Chotikapanich
2022: Inference for Lorenz Curves Downloads
Gholamreza Hajargasht and William Griffiths
2021: Rare Events and Risk Perception: Evidence from Fukushima Accident Downloads
Tomasz Wozniak
2020: Rare Events and Risk Perception: Evidence from Fukushima Accident Downloads
Renaud Coulomb and Yanos Zylberberg
2019: A Review of the Recent Literature on the Institutional Economics Analysis of the Long-Run Performance of Nations Downloads
Peter Lloyd and Cassey Lee
2018: The First 100 Years of Tariffs in Australia: the Colonies Downloads
P. J. Lloyd
2015: Does Corruption Attenuate the Effect of Red Tape on Exports Downloads
Reshad Ahsan
2003: Market Size Matters:A Model of Excess Volatility in Large Markets Downloads
Kei Kawakami
2002: The Indirect Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy: Mortality Risk, Mental Health, and HIV-Negative Labor Supply Downloads
Victoria Baranov, Daniel Bennett and Hans-Peter Kohler
2001: The Impact of AIDS Treatment on Savings and Human Capital Investment in Malawi Downloads
Victoria Baranov and Hans-Peter Kohler
1198: Instrument-free Identifcation and Estimation of the Diferentiated Products Models Downloads
David Byrne, Susumu Imai and Vasilis Sarafidis
1197: Consumer Search in Retail Gasoline Markets Downloads
David Byrne and Nicolas de Roos
1196: Estimating Fiscal Multipliers:News From a Nonlinear World Downloads
Giovanni Caggiano, Efrem Castelnuovo, Valentina Colombo and Gabriela Nodari
1195: Uncertainty Shocks and Unemployment Dynamics in U.S. Recessions Downloads
Giovanni Caggiano, Efrem Castelnuovo and Nicolas Groshenny
1194: Granger-causal analysis of GARCH models: a Bayesian approach Downloads
Tomasz Woźniak
1193: Egyptian and Syrian commodity markets after the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire: a Bayesian structural VECM analysis Downloads
Laura Panza and Tomasz Wozniak
1192: Job polarisation and earnings inequality in Australia Downloads
Michael Coelli and Jeff Borland
1191: Granger Causality and Regime Inference in Bayesian Markov-Switching VARs Downloads
Matthieu Droumagueta, Anders Warneb and Tomasz Wozniakc
1190: Welfare Consequences of Information Aggregation and Optimal Market Size Downloads
William E. Griffiths and Gholamreza Hajargasht
1189: Welfare Consequences of Information Aggregation and Optimal Market Size Downloads
Kei Kawakami
1188: Excessive Dynamic Trading: Propagation of Belief Shocks in Small Markets Downloads
Kei Kawakami
1187: The influence of student experiences on post-graduation surveys Downloads
Joseph Hirschberg and Jeanette Lye
1184: Effectiveness of the Australian Fiscal Stimulus Package: A DSGE Analysis Downloads
Shuyun May Li and Adam Spencer
1183: Competition, Markups, and the Gains from Downloads
Chris Edmond, Virgiliu Midrigan and Daniel Yi Xu
1182: Information Aggregation and Optimal Market Size Downloads
Kei Kawakami
1181: Search and Stockpiling in Retail Gasoline Markets Downloads
David Byrne and Nicolas de Roos
1180: Tell Me Something I Don’t Already Know:Informedness and External Validity in Information Programs Downloads
David Byrne, Andrea La Nauze and Leslie Martin
1179: Lay people’s models of the economy: A study based on surveys of consumer sentiments Downloads
Robert Dixon, William Griffiths and Guay Lim
1178: Maximally Informative Decision Rules In a Two-Person Decision Problem Downloads
Kei Kawakami
1177: CRITICAL EVENTS Downloads
Victor E. Jennings, Bill Lloyd-Smith and Duncan Ironmonger
1176: How do Co nsumers Respond to Gasoline Downloads
David Byrne and Gordon Leslie
1175: Aggregative Oligopoly Games with Entry Downloads
Simon P. Anderson, Nisvan Erkal and
1174: Optimal Sharing Strategies in Dynamic Downloads
Nisvan Erkal and Deborah Minehart
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