Australian Economic Growth: Non-Linearities and Internaitonal Influences

Ólan Henry and Peter Summers

No 738, Department of Economics - Working Papers Series from The University of Melbourne

Abstract: This paper considers the extent to which fluctuations in Australian economic growth are affected by domestic and overseas economic performance. We investigate the performance of a range of non-linear models versus linear models using Bayes factors and posterior odds ratios. The posterior odds ratios favour non-linear specifications in which fluctuations in economic activity in the US affect Australia's economic performance. Our results suggest that an exogenous negative shock will be more persistent, lead to greater output volatility, and have a greater impact on growth, than a positive shock of equal magnitude.

Keywords: ECONOMIC GROWTH; BUSINESS CYCLES; INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C22 E32 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 18 pages
Date: 2000
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Journal Article: Australian Economic Growth: Nonlinearities and International Influences (2000)
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