Global Projections of Household Numbers Using Age Determined Ratios

Victor E. Jennings, Conrad W. Lloyd-Smith and Duncan Ironmonger

No 914, Department of Economics - Working Papers Series from The University of Melbourne

Abstract: A new method based upon age determined population ratios is described and used to estimate household population intensities (households per person). Using an additive and a bounded model household projections are given to 2050 for the world and to 2030 for seven fertility transition subgroups (cohorts) of the countries of the world. Based upon United Nations 2002 Revision data, from an estimated 1.56 billion households at 2000, household growth to 2030 is projected to be an additional 1.1 billion households, whether population increase is 1.3 billion persons under the United Nations low fertility variant or 2.7 billion persons under the high fertility variant. At that date over one third of all households are projected to be Chinese or Indian. By 2050 it is projected that there will be 3.3 billion households with a 95 per cent confidence interval on modelling error only of ± 0.5 billion. This compares with 3.2 billion in the Habitat: Global Report on Human Settlements 1996. The apparent similarity of total household growth under various scenarios conceals a wide range in the growth of household intensities across fertility transition cohorts. It is suggested that models, projections and error be reviewed biennially and that household and population projections be produced jointly.

Keywords: Household projections; world; age ratios; fertility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 46 pages
Date: 2004
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.economics.unimelb.edu.au/downloads/wpapers-04/914.pdf (application/pdf)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 404 Not Found (http://www.economics.unimelb.edu.au/downloads/wpapers-04/914.pdf [301 Moved Permanently]--> http://fbe.unimelb.edu.au/economics/downloads/wpapers-04/914.pdf [301 Moved Permanently]--> https://fbe.unimelb.edu.au/economics/downloads/wpapers-04/914.pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mlb:wpaper:914

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Department of Economics - Working Papers Series from The University of Melbourne Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne, 4th Floor, FBE Building, Level 4, 111 Barry Street. Victoria, 3010, Australia. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dandapani Lokanathan ().