 La dette publique française justifie-t-elle l'austérité budgétaire ?Gaël Giraud,
Florent Mc Isaac and
Rossi Abi Rafeh
Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne from Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne Abstract: Recent talks claiming the necessity of austerity measures in France often take the unsustainibility of public debts as a starting point. In this analysis, we show that the current public debt levels in France are not a sufficient reason to undertake such austerity policies. To substantiate our claims, we apply a VAR methodology on six relevant macroeconomic French series. A negative shock of only -1% to public expenditures is found more likely to have recessionary effects (increased deficit, debt and a higher level of unemployment) rather than the expected positive effects. In particular, it would presumably increase unemployment in France by 1 million people, confirming that the main scenario threatening France today is a deflationary liquidity trap akin to the Japanese scenario Keywords: National debt; austerity; VAR; national budget (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mse:cesdoc:12093 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne from Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne Contact information at EDIRC. |
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