The gravity of electromobility. An early investigation of structural change in automotive industry

Jan Baran, Patryk Czechowski and Jakub Mućk
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Patryk Czechowski: Narodowy Bank Polski

No 379, NBP Working Papers from Narodowy Bank Polski

Abstract: In this paper we examine the role of the electromobility transformation for exports of the automotive sector. To do so, we propose a novel mapping of granular codes of automotive products into three categories: (i) combustion-specific, (ii) neutral, and (iii) electric-specific. We estimate a standard gravity model of the trade flows of automotive products, comparing the three categories with each other. We demonstrate that key drivers of export of the electric-specific products are similar to the combustion-specific ones. However, exports related to electric vehicles are more technologically intensive and supported by either a domestic R&D potential or international knowledge spillovers through FDI. In particular, export-oriented production of electric-specific intermediates proves to be to a large extent R&D intensive. Our results also suggest that the ongoing structural change in the automotive industry leads rather to intra-industry reorganization than to more fundamental restructuring of existing Global Value Chains.

Keywords: automotive industry; international trade; gravity model of trade; structural change; electric vehicles; electromobility; Global Value Chains (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F14 L16 L62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 52
Date: 2025
Note: The views expressed herein belong to the authors and have not been endorsed by Narodowy Bank Polski. We would like to thank conference participants at WIEM (Warsaw, 2024) and ETSG (Athens, 2024) conferences for helpful comments and discussion.
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:379

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