The gravity of electromobility. An early investigation of structural change in automotive industry

Jan Baran, Patryk Czechowski and Jakub Mućk

No 2026-122, KAE Working Papers from Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis

Abstract: In this paper we examine the role of the electromobility transformation for exports of the automotive sector. To do so, we propose a novel mapping of granular codes of automotive products into three categories: (i) combustion-specific, (ii) neutral, and (iii) electric-specific. We estimate a standard gravity model of the trade flows of automotive products, comparing the three categories with each other. We demonstrate that key drivers of export of the electric-specific products are similar to the combustion-specific ones. However, exports related to electric vehicles are more technologically intensive and supported by either a domestic R&D potential or international knowledge spillovers through FDI. In particular, export-oriented production of electric-specific intermediates proves to be to a large extent R&D intensive. Our results also suggest that the ongoing structural change in the automotive industry leads rather to intra-industry reorganization than to more fundamental restructuring of existing Global Value Chains.

Keywords: automotive industry; international trade; gravity model of trade; structural change; electric vehicles; electromobility; Global Value Chains (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F14 L16 L62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 44 pages
Date: 2026-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-ind, nep-int and nep-tre
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https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12182/1444 (application/pdf)

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Working Paper: The gravity of electromobility. An early investigation of structural change in automotive industry (2025)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2026122

DOI: 10.33119/kaewps2026122

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